Nigerian oil marketers say another round of petrol price increases is likely after international crude oil benchmarks surged past $100 a barrel this week, driven by escalating tension between the United States and Iran.
Brent crude closed at $100.60 a barrel on Wednesday, up from about $97, while Murban crude climbed 6.83 percent to $118.30. The OPEC Basket, which includes Nigeria's Bonny Light, rose roughly 5.2 percent to cross $100 a barrel. The rally followed reports that Iran struck US vessels and oil tankers in the Gulf, days after the US struck Iranian tankers near Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export hub.
Joseph Ehimen, Lagos State chairman of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, said marketers would likely adjust pump prices after their next round of purchases, based on market forces and logistics costs. Depot prices for petrol in Lagos had already risen to between N1,266 and N1,280 per litre by Tuesday, before the latest crude rally, with retail pump prices in Lagos and Abuja holding around N1,325 per litre in some locations.
Economists say the higher crude prices cut both ways for Nigeria. The country's 2026 budget was based on an oil price benchmark of $64.85 a barrel, so a sustained rally above $100 could deliver a significant revenue windfall, provided crude production holds steady.
Nigeria's output fell to 1.44 million barrels per day in July, below its 1.5 million bpd target. But because Nigeria's downstream fuel market is deregulated, the same price rally raises the cost of imported refined products and inputs, which analysts say is likely to push up transport, logistics and food costs for ordinary households. Some economists have urged the federal government to cushion the impact through targeted support rather than a return to broad fuel subsidies.
